3 Cognitive Biases
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3.1 Daniel Kahneman
📖 Nobel laureate psychologist who studies biases in judgment and decision-making.
“We tend to overweight vivid, emotionally resonant events and underweight more mundane events in our memory. This can lead to biased decisions.”
— Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
We make riskier decisions if we think of deaths by disasters recently on the news, whereas if the death is from heart disease, obesity, or old age, we might not be weighing it as much. We overvalue vivid information.
“We tend to search for information that confirms our existing beliefs, and we ignore or discount information that contradicts them.”
— Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
Our confirmation bias causes us to seek out information that fits our beliefs. We are not open-minded enough or cautious enough. This can lead to poor decision-making, because we are not considering all of the available information.
“We tend to make decisions based on our intuition, even when we have access to more objective information.”
— Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
Thinking takes effort, so even when we have access to more objective information, we may rely on our intuition. This can be harmful, as mental shortcuts can lead to biased decisions.
3.2 Amos Tversky
📖 Mathematician and psychologist who collaborated with Kahneman in studying biases.
“People tend to be overconfident in their own abilities and knowledge.”
— Amos Tversky, Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.
This means that people often believe that they know more than they actually do, and that they are more likely to be right than they actually are. This can lead to a number of problems, such as making poor decisions, taking unnecessary risks, and being overly optimistic about the future.
“People tend to be biased towards information that confirms their existing beliefs.”
— Amos Tversky, Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.
This means that people are more likely to seek out and pay attention to information that supports their existing beliefs, and to ignore or discount information that contradicts their beliefs. This can lead to a number of problems, such as making biased decisions, holding onto false beliefs, and being resistant to new information.
“People tend to be loss averse.”
— Amos Tversky, Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.
This means that people are more sensitive to losses than they are to gains. This can lead to a number of problems, such as making risk-averse decisions, being overly pessimistic about the future, and being more likely to give up when faced with setbacks.
3.3 Gerd Gigerenzer
📖 Psychologist who studies heuristics and biases in decision-making.
“Our brains are often better at recognizing patterns than at doing logical calculations.”
— Gerd Gigerenzer, Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious
When we make decisions, we often rely on our gut feelings rather than on logical calculations. This is because our brains are better at recognizing patterns than at doing logical calculations. This can lead to biased decision-making but also lead to quicker and often more accurate judgments in situations where there is a lot of uncertainty.
“The more information we have, the worse our decisions can become.”
— Gerd Gigerenzer, Less Is More: How Less Is More Information Can Lead to Better Decisions
When we have more information, we often feel more confident in our decisions. However, this is not always the case. In some cases, having more information can actually lead to worse decisions. This is because more information can lead to information overload, which can make it difficult for us to make clear decisions.
“We are often unaware of the biases that influence our decisions.”
— Gerd Gigerenzer, Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious
Our brains are constantly bombarded with information. As a result, we often make decisions without being aware of the biases that influence us. These biases can lead to poor decision-making. This is why it is important to be aware of the biases that influence our decisions.
3.4 Cass Sunstein
📖 Legal scholar and behavioral scientist who studies biases in law and policy.
“Humans tend to overestimate risks associated with extremely rare events, as well as underestimate risks associated with common events.”
— Cass Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
The availability heuristic, a cognitive bias, causes people to estimate the likelihood of an event based on how easily they can recall instances of the event. For example, people tend to overestimate the risk of shark attacks because they are more memorable than car accidents, even though car accidents are far more common.
“People are more likely to believe information that confirms their existing beliefs.”
— Cass Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
Confirmation bias, a cognitive bias, causes people to seek out information that confirms their existing beliefs and to ignore or discount information that contradicts them. This can lead to a distorted view of the world and make it difficult to make informed decisions.
“People are more likely to make decisions that are consistent with their social identity.”
— Cass Sunstein, Social Norms and Behavior
Social identity theory, a psychological theory, proposes that people’s self-concept is based on their membership in social groups. People are motivated to maintain a positive self-concept, and they do this by conforming to the norms of their social groups. This can influence people’s decisions in a variety of ways, such as their choice of clothing, food, and political affiliation.
3.5 Richard Thaler
📖 Economist and behavioral scientist who studies biases in economic decision-making.
“People are more likely to procrastinate on tasks they find unpleasant, even if they are important.”
— Richard Thaler, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
This is because our brains are wired to seek out pleasure and avoid pain. When we procrastinate, we are essentially choosing the path of least resistance. We may know that we should be working on a task, but we put it off because it is not enjoyable. This can lead to a vicious cycle of procrastination, as we feel guilty about not completing the task, which makes us even more likely to procrastinate on it in the future.
“People are more likely to make decisions that are in their own self-interest, even if it means harming others.”
— Richard Thaler, Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics
This is because we are all wired with a strong sense of self-preservation. When we make decisions, we are more likely to choose the option that will benefit us the most, even if it means hurting someone else. This can lead to a lot of conflict and division in society, as people compete for resources and opportunities.
“People are more likely to believe information that confirms their existing beliefs, even if it is not true.”
— Richard Thaler, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
This is because our brains are wired to seek out information that supports our existing beliefs. When we encounter information that contradicts our beliefs, we are more likely to dismiss it or ignore it altogether. This can lead to a lot of misinformation and disinformation in society, as people spread false information that confirms their own beliefs.
3.6 Dan Ariely
📖 Behavioral economist who studies biases in decision-making.
“People are more likely to take risks when they are feeling positive.”
— Dan Ariely, Predictably Irrational
This is because positive emotions lead to increased levels of dopamine in the brain, which is associated with risk-taking behavior.
“People are more likely to believe information that confirms their existing beliefs.”
— Dan Ariely, The Upside of Irrationality
This is because people tend to seek out information that supports their existing views, and to ignore or discount information that does not.
“People are more likely to make decisions that are in their own self-interest, even if those decisions are not in the best interests of others.”
— Dan Ariely, The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty
This is because people are often motivated by short-term gains, and they may not consider the long-term consequences of their actions.
3.7 Jonathan Haidt
📖 Social psychologist who studies moral psychology and biases.
“Beliefs can be more important than facts when it comes to shaping our behavior.”
— Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion
Just presenting people with evidence that contradicts their beliefs often does not alter those beliefs.
“Moral judgments are often made quickly and intuitively, and are not always based on reasoned argument.”
— Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion
Our moral intuitions are shaped by our culture and social environment, and can be at odds with our own stated values and beliefs.
“Group membership can lead to increased bias and discrimination.”
— Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion
When people identify with a group, they are more likely to favor that group and its members, even if it means discriminating against others.
3.8 Steven Pinker
📖 Cognitive scientist who studies language, mind, and human nature.
“We are all susceptible to cognitive biases, even experts.”
— Steven Pinker, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature
Cognitive biases are mental shortcuts that can lead us to make incorrect judgments. While we all have biases, experts are not immune to them. In fact, experts may be more likely to fall prey to certain biases because they are more confident in their knowledge and abilities.
“Cognitive biases can have a significant impact on our decisions and behavior.”
— Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined
Cognitive biases can lead us to make decisions that are not in our best interests. For example, we may be more likely to invest in a stock that we have heard good things about, even if it is not a sound investment. We may also be more likely to trust someone who is similar to us, even if they are not trustworthy.
“It is important to be aware of our own cognitive biases and to take steps to mitigate their effects.”
— Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress
Once we are aware of our own cognitive biases, we can take steps to mitigate their effects. For example, we can be more critical of information that we hear from sources that we know to be biased. We can also be more open to considering different perspectives and to seeking out information that challenges our existing beliefs.
3.9 Malcolm Gladwell
📖 Author and journalist who writes about cognitive biases and their impact on society.
“Our brains are wired to make quick decisions, even when we don’t have all the information. This can lead to biased thinking and poor decision-making.”
— Malcolm Gladwell, Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking
Our brains are constantly trying to make sense of the world around us. In order to do this, we rely on shortcuts, or heuristics, to make quick decisions. This system works well most of the time, but it can lead to errors when we don’t have all the information we need.
“We are often unaware of our own biases. This can lead to us making unfair or inaccurate judgments.”
— Malcolm Gladwell, Talking to Strangers: What We Should Know About the People We Don’t Know
Our biases are often shaped by our experiences, our culture, and our personal beliefs. Because they are so ingrained in us, we are often unaware of them. This can lead to us making unfair or inaccurate judgments about others.
“We can overcome our biases by being aware of them and actively challenging them.”
— Malcolm Gladwell, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference
Once we are aware of our biases, we can take steps to overcome them. This can involve actively challenging our assumptions, seeking out diverse perspectives, and being open to new information.
3.10 Michael Lewis
📖 Author and journalist who writes about financial crises and cognitive biases.
“The first step to avoiding cognitive biases is to be aware of them.”
— Michael Lewis, The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
Once we are aware of our biases, we can take steps to mitigate their effects. For example, we can seek out information that challenges our existing beliefs, or we can ask others for their perspectives on a given issue.
“Cognitive biases can lead us to make poor decisions, both in our personal lives and in our professional lives.”
— Michael Lewis, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine
For example, we may be more likely to invest in a stock that is popular with other investors, even if it is not a sound investment. Or, we may be more likely to hire a candidate who is similar to us, even if they are not the best candidate for the job.
“We can overcome cognitive biases by using critical thinking and skepticism.”
— Michael Lewis, Boomerang: Travels in the New Third World
When we are faced with a decision, we should take the time to consider all of the available information and to weigh the pros and cons of each option. We should also be willing to challenge our assumptions and to consider alternative perspectives.